Lesson 01 of 05 - Pharmaceutical Breakthroughs
The course 'How to Win at Angry Birds' by Dr. Josh Turknett explores why there has been a lack of significant pharmacological breakthroughs despite advances in neuroscience. This lesson discusses the failure to find superior treatments for major diseases such as Alzheimer's and obesity, despite the promise of a therapeutic revolution 20 years ago. The absence of major breakthroughs, termed a 'therapeutic winter', raises questions about the effectiveness of the current approach to medical research and treatment development.
humanOS presents how to win at Angry Birds, the ancestral paradigm for therapeutic revolution. This course was created by me, Doctor Josh Turknet. I am a board certified neurologist, clinical researcher, author and current President of Physicians for Ancestral Health. Our reviewer for this course was Doctor Tommy Wood. Doctor Wood is an assistant professor at the University of Washington in the Department of Neonatology, as well as the cofounder of the British Society for Lifestyle Medicine. This presentation began as an attempt to answer 2 important questions. First, why have we failed so miserably? And second, why do we keep repeating the same mistakes over and over again? Why do we continue the same approach in the face of overwhelming evidence that it's not working? It was roughly 20 years ago that I decided to direct my interest in the neurosciences towards a career as a neurologist. One of my major reasons for doing so was because I thought, as did so many others, that we were on the cusp of a revolution in our ability to treat diseases of the nervous system based on the prevailing wisdom. I expected there to be major advances in, if not cures, for, many of the most devastating illnesses that neurologists face. That was the promise. Now let's look at the reality. Here is a timeline of the major pharmacological breakthroughs in the treatment of the most prominent diseases of the nervous system. Along with the year those breakthroughs were made, these are the dates of discovery for a treatment that to this day remains a gold standard. Meaning that it has yet to be replaced by a superior treatment. Our first breakthroughs occur around the turn of the twentieth century with the discovery of aspirin for stroke prevention and phenobarbital for the treatment of generalized epilepsy. Around the mid twentieth, century we add a couple of new treatments for Mya senior Gravis along with the discovery of tegretol for partial epilepsy and levodopa for Parkinson's disease. This is then followed by a drought in pharmacological breakthroughs, or what we might refer to as a therapeutic winter until the discovery of Sumatriptan in 1991 for the treatment of migraines, though there are some who would debate whether, given its drawbacks, it should be considered a net benefit or net harm. The ensuing period from 1991 up to the present day has seen no further pharmacological breakthroughs. You may note the absence in this timeline of some of the other major common diseases of the nervous system, like Alzheimer's, multiple sclerosis, and diabetic neuropathy. Unfortunately, this unsettling trend is not just limited to neurological diseases. If we review the history of pharmacological breakthroughs for the major diseases of other organ systems, we find a similar story.
We begin with the discovery of things like digitalis for heart failure and insulin for diabetes 2, treatments that are still commonly used in the mid twentieth. Century we add the first antipsychotic for schizophrenia, the first antidepressant for depression, the first oral antidiabetic agent and the first drug for the treatment of high blood pressure. And then after 1970 we have another therapeutic winter while many new drugs have come out during this period of time. None of them are significantly more effective than the existing options and thus do not qualify as pharmacological breakthroughs. And again here note the absence of any pharmacological breakthroughs for the treatment of obesity, despite the enormity of the problem and the amount of resources that have been devoted to finding a pharmacological treatment. This means that for the vast majority of major health conditions that impact humans. The ones that have placed our healthcare system on the verge of collapse, we've essentially made no significant pharmacological advances in the past 50 years. This isn't because our existing treatments work so well that they can't be improved upon, but because we haven't been able to find anything better. One reason I decided to direct my interest in neuroscience into a career in neurology was because it was widely believed at the time I graduated medical school that we were on the verge of a therapeutic revolution. I vividly remember, as a fourth year medical student asking a prominent Alzheimer's researcher at my medical school how long he thought it'd be till we had a cure for the disease. After pausing for a moment, he said 10 years. Again, this was in line with the prevailing sentiment at the time. The reality is it is now 20 years later and we've made no progress. Not only do we not have a cure, we don't even have a treatment that is incrementally better than what was available at the time he made this prediction. In fact, as you may have seen in some recent headlines, the picture here is now considered so bleak that many drug companies are pulling out of Alzheimer's Research altogether. So clearly we were off in our estimates. And if we continue with this base, perhaps a more realistic prediction for finding a drug cure for Alzheimer's might be the year 4237 Or maybe never. All of this, of course, comes in the face of incredible progress in the field of neuroscience itself. In our understanding of the brain and the mechanisms of disease, along with a massive investment of resources into the search for new treatments, to say this failure has been surprising and unexpected is a huge understatement. And all of this begs the question, what on Earth is going on?
Course Introduction
- HumanOS Course: Winning at Angry Birds, a paradigm shift.
- Creator: Dr. Josh Turknet, board-certified neurologist & President of Physicians for Ancestral Health.
- Reviewer: Dr. Tommy Wood, assistant professor & cofounder of British Society for Lifestyle Medicine.
Core Questions
- Primary Concerns:
- Failure in therapeutic advances.
- Repetition of ineffective strategies despite evidence.
Background
- Dr. Turknet's Journey:
- Interest in neurosciences → career in neurology.
- Anticipated revolution in nervous system disease treatment.
Reality Check: Neurological Advances
- Pharmacological Breakthroughs:
- Early 20th century: Aspirin for stroke, Phenobarbital for epilepsy.
- Mid 20th century: Treatments for Myasthenia Gravis, Tegretol for partial epilepsy, Levodopa for Parkinson’s.
- 1991: Sumatriptan for migraines—marked the last major breakthrough.
Therapeutic Winter
- Post-1991 Drought:
- No significant pharmacological breakthroughs across major neurological diseases.
- Similar trends in other major diseases (heart failure, diabetes, psychiatric conditions).
Wider Medical Landscape
- General Medical Advances:
- Early to mid 20th century: Foundational treatments for heart failure, diabetes, schizophrenia, depression, hypertension.
- Post-1970: No significant advances, despite new drugs.
The Problem Magnified
- Healthcare Crisis:
- Last 50 years: No significant pharmacological advancements for major health conditions.
- Healthcare system strain due to ineffective treatments.
Personal Reflection
- Expectation vs. Reality:
- Initial optimism for therapeutic revolution.
- 20 years later: No progress in Alzheimer’s treatment or cure.
Conclusion
- Industry Response:
- Pharmaceutical companies withdrawing from Alzheimer's research.
- Neuroscience Progress:
- Despite advancements in understanding, no new treatments emerged.
- Alarming Prediction:
- Possibility of never finding a cure for Alzheimer’s at current pace.
- Why did Dr. Josh Turknet decide to focus his career on neurology, and how does this relate to the outcomes observed in the course of his career?
- He was interested in the monetary benefits of the field, which aligned with the widespread therapeutic breakthroughs he later observed.
- He believed in the imminent therapeutic revolution in nervous system disease treatment, a belief that was contradicted by the lack of significant advancements.
- He was inspired by the advancements in Alzheimer's research, accurately predicting the rapid development of a cure.
- He had a personal connection to a neurological disease, which led to the discovery of a groundbreaking treatment.
- B
- What was identified as the last major pharmacological breakthrough in the treatment of neurological diseases, and in which year was it discovered?
- Levodopa for Parkinson's disease in the mid-20th century.
- Sumatriptan for the treatment of migraines in 1991.
- Aspirin for stroke prevention at the turn of the 20th century.
- The first antipsychotic for schizophrenia in the mid-20th century.
- B
- What significant trend was highlighted regarding the development of treatments for major diseases since 1991?
- A surge in pharmacological breakthroughs for neurological diseases.
- A therapeutic winter, with no significant pharmacological breakthroughs.
- Major advancements in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease.
- The discovery of numerous effective treatments for obesity.
- B
Lesson 02 of 05 - The Competition
The lesson discusses the failure of medical therapeutics using the metaphor of two teams playing Angry Birds. Team game level learns to play the game while team source code dissects the game's code. The former succeeds while the latter fails, illustrating that understanding the fundamentals and playing the game (or applying an evolutionary perspective to health) is more effective than trying to manipulate the underlying code (or solely focusing on biological research for disease treatment). It emphasizes the importance of reducing mismatches between our natural and current habitats to prevent chronic disease.
Our failure to make meaningful progress in the realm of medical therapeutics over the last 50 years forces us to confront some difficult realities, and it should lead to a search for explanations. At best, we can say that maybe we were just way off in our time frame, that perhaps we were overly optimistic in our projections, and that finding drug solutions to the diseases of our times is just much harder than we thought. On the other hand, we must also consider the possibility. That our approach, or our guiding paradigm for finding new treatments is fundamentally flawed.
That the reason we failed to find the solutions we're after is because we've been looking for them in the wrong place. And that brings us to the parable of Angry Birds. Imagine an iPhone lands on an alien planet and it's loaded up with the game Angry Birds. Now these aliens don't know iPhones. They don't have computers. And they don't have any games where you hurl birds at Fort building pigs with a slingshot. But they're a curious and competitive species, and they like the game, so they decide to hold a competition. They split into two teams and plan to meet back in a month to face off in the Angry Birds Championships to crown one team champion.
The first team, we'll call them team game level, takes the approach that most of us would, which is to get really good at playing the game. At figuring out the game mechanics, mastering the controls, and so forth, Team two, who will refer to as team source code, opts for a different strategy. Instead of learning to play the game, they decide instead to take the game apart. Believing this will allow them to gain a deeper understanding of how the game works, which they assume will provide a big leg up on their competition.
So they start dissecting how the game is constructed, peeling it away layer by layer. First they discovered that the game is written in programming language, and then beneath that there exists machine language that's written in binary code and that specifies the moment to moment state of transistors in the iphone's processors. At this point, team source code is pretty pleased with themselves. They've cracked the game's code and have found what surely seems like a secret advantage over team game level. The game, Angry Birds, is just an illusion created by the machine language, and so their plan for winning. Is to alter the machine language in real time.
So to review team game level prepares for the competition by playing the game over and over, while team source code prepares by first taking the game apart to reveal how it really works. And their plan is to win by manipulating the machine language in real time. One month passes and the teams meet up for the championships, and as you've probably predicted, it's a massacre team game level having logged hundreds of hours of practice.
Clears one level after the next and posts an impressive score. Team source code, on the other hand, can't even complete a single round without the game crashing. And this is, of course, because there isn't a computer scientist alive who could do such a thing. Nor is there one who could do so much as look at the machine language for any game or software and have any idea whatsoever what the software it codes for will do. Even for the coders who wrote the game Angry Birds, their best strategy for winning the game would be to play it here at Human OS, we believe that number one, an evolutionary perspective is essential for understanding the foundations of human health, and that it is impossible to understand the reasons we thrive or the reasons we get sick without the context of our evolutionary history and number two.
That the fundamental driver of the chronic diseases of modern times are mismatches between the natural ancestral human habitat and our present one. By extension, it logically follows that reducing mismatch is the best strategy for preventing chronic disease. Earlier, I recounted our alarming failure over the past half century in making any meaningful pharmacological breakthroughs in the chronic diseases of our time. What I'm arguing for here. And what this parable is intended to illustrate is that the reasons we failed in finding the treatments we so desperately need is because we've been using team source code strategy for improving health and fighting chronic disease. We've been trying to manipulate the source code when instead we should have been learning how to play the game.
And this is the reason why our incredible advances in our understanding of biology and our massive investment in biological research. Has not translated into any meaningful therapeutic progress. On the other hand, the ancestral health therapeutic paradigm utilizes team game level strategy, which is to learn how to win by playing the game. Prioritizing the game level approach is how we integrate an evolutionary perspective into promoting health and into developing and evaluating new treatments. The concept of environmental mismatch is not only relevant to our understanding of the root causes of disease. It is also relevant with respect to the therapies we choose to how we intervene in human biology in ways that promote health and treat illness.
Because if we neglect to apply an evolutionary perspective and the concept of mismatch to therapeutics as well, we not only introduce all the same hazards and risks as the mismatched environments that led to the very diseases we're treating. But we also overlook the most powerful levers we have for influencing our own health. On the other hand, if we can collectively embrace this new paradigm, we have the opportunity, given our present level of knowledge and technological sophistication, to usher in a revolution in human health and medical therapies, to finally leverage the tools and methods of science so that our treatments and our level of thriving can catch up with other areas of human progress.
Therapeutic Progress Challenges
- 50-Year Stagnation: No significant medical therapeutics advancements.
- Overoptimism vs. Fundamental Flaws:
- Possibility of unrealistic timelines.
- Potential flawed paradigm in treatment discovery.
Parable of Angry Birds
- Alien Scenario: iPhone with Angry Birds lands on alien planet.
- Teams:
- Team Game Level: Focus on gameplay mastery.
- Team Source Code: Dismantle game to understand and manipulate code.
Competition Outcome
- Practice vs. Code Manipulation:
- Team Game Level: Extensive practice → high scores.
- Team Source Code: Code manipulation → game crashes.
HumanOS Perspective
- Evolutionary Health Viewpoint:
- Essential for understanding human health.
- Chronic diseases largely due to environmental mismatches.
- Ancestral vs. Modern Approaches:
- Modern chronic disease treatment parallels Team Source Code strategy.
- Suggests playing the "game" (aligning with evolutionary principles) is more effective.
Paradigm Shift Proposition
- From Source Code to Game Play:
- Shift from manipulating biological "source code" to adapting lifestyles.
- Environmental Mismatch:
- Addressing mismatch as a treatment strategy.
- Integrating Evolutionary Perspective:
- Prioritize understanding and adapting to evolutionary health principles.
Implications for Health and Therapy
- Mismatch Hazards:
- Ignoring evolutionary perspective in therapeutics mirrors dangers of environmental mismatches.
- Revolution in Health and Medicine:
- Embracing evolutionary health principles could revolutionize health outcomes and medical treatments.
- What is the primary reason cited for the lack of meaningful progress in medical therapeutics over the last 50 years?
- A lack of funding for medical research.
- The complexity of diseases has increased.
- A flawed approach or guiding paradigm in finding new treatments.
- Insufficient technological advancements.
- In the parable of Angry Birds, what strategy did Team Source Code employ in their attempt to win the game?
- Practicing the game repeatedly to master it.
- Disassembling the game to understand its programming and machine language.
- Consulting with the game developers for tips.
- Using cheat codes found online.
- B
- According to the text, what is considered the best strategy for preventing chronic disease, and how does it relate to the parable of Angry Birds?
- Advanced genetic manipulation.
- Reducing mismatches between our natural ancestral habitat and our present environment.
- Developing new pharmaceutical drugs.
- Increasing healthcare spending.
- B
C
Lesson 03 of 05 - The Comparison
The lesson distinguishes between game-level and source-code interventions in healthcare. Game-level interventions engage with evolved human biology and are safer, more potent, and appropriate for complex systems. Source-code interventions are novel, riskier, and suitable for simpler systems. The current gold standard, randomized controlled trials, fall short in assessing game-level interventions. Dr. Turknett argues for a shift in research focus from source code to game-level interventions, using trial-and-error learning to understand complex systems like human health.
So let's explore this distinction between game-level interventions and source code interventions a bit further, particularly as it pertains to therapeutics, in order to further understand the difference between evolutionarily familiar and evolutionarily novel health interventions. Another term for game-level interventions would be naturalistic or evolutionarily familiar with respect to the nature of the intervention. Along with how and where it impacts a biological system, in this case, the human body. By definition, all of the evolutionary forces that have shaped our biology and Physiology are at the game level.
In other words, these forces represent the environmental inputs to which the human body has been responding and adapting to throughout the history of our species. So you can also think of game-level actions as encompassing all of the possible moves that we can make in the game of life. Source code interventions, on the other hand, are evolutionarily novel, representing forces that have not shaped our biology and Physiology and thus to which we have no specific adaptations to. This distinction leads to some very important differences between these two kinds of interventions, first, since they are evolutionarily familiar.
Game level interventions are inherently safer and much less likely to crash the system because they engage the regulatory mechanisms that have evolved over millions of years in response to them. Source code interventions, being evolutionarily novel, are also inherently riskier because they bypass evolved regulatory mechanisms. On some level, we recognize this to be true. We require extensive safety testing of synthetic pharmaceuticals for this very reason. But we don't have similar safety concerns about game level interventions. Like exercise, game level interventions are also inherently more powerful because their locus of action is upstream in the physiological cascade and therefore influence the activity of many pathways.
On the other hand, source code interventions are inherently weaker because their locus of action relative to game level interventions is downstream and their scope of influence is narrower. Game level interventions are thus better suited for intervening in complex adaptive systems like the human body, where the range of effects of source code interventions cannot be predicted. In fact, even with complete knowledge and understanding of human biology, which we are still very far from, we'd still be unable to predict the outcome of source code interventions similar to fixing a typo in the games code. Source code interventions are most appropriate for conditions that are clearly caused by a single identifiable factor, such as the meningococcus bacteria.
That's a cause of bacterial meningitis, and it is no coincidence that essentially all major progress in pharmacological treatment has been in the treatment of acute binary single factor conditions. So to review the differences between game level interventions and source code interventions, game level interventions are evolutionarily familiar. While source code interventions are evolutionarily novel, game level interventions are inherently safer because they engage evolved regulatory mechanisms. Source code interventions are inherently riskier because they bypass evolved regulatory mechanisms.
Game level interventions locus of action is upstream, which gives them a much greater scope of influence. The locus of action for source code interventions is downstream. Giving them a narrower scope of influence. Game level interventions are best suited for intervening in complex adaptive systems, whereas source code interventions are better suited for intervening in complicated systems where the effects of that intervention are predictable. This distinction also matters in terms of how we advance therapeutic knowledge, or the proper way we would go about figuring out whether a game level intervention or a source code intervention works or not.
The present gold standard for medical interventions is the randomized controlled trial. The problem here is that randomized controlled trials are designed to evaluate static, discontinuous interventions that impact a single variable. In other words, randomized controlled trials are an appropriate way to determine the effectiveness of source code interventions. Game level interventions, however, are dynamic and continuous by nature, impacting multiple variables simultaneously. The randomized controlled trial is thus not the right way to evaluate them. As mentioned, they are designed to evaluate interventions of a very different sort.
To help in understanding why randomized controlled trials are inappropriate here, imagine a baseball player forced to learn how to throw a curveball by adjusting 1 variable at a time. Not only would this approach to learning to throw a curveball be extraordinarily time consuming and tedious. It would virtually assure that he or she would never arrive at the optimal solution as it can't assess the contextual dependencies of all the variables. And this matters because one reason why game level interventions are under researched and underutilized in healthcare today is because we do not have a research ecosystem for advancing our understanding of how to best use them.
Furthermore, we created a criteria for validating their use, the randomized controlled trial that is impossible for them to meet. It's often said that the reason diet and lifestyle interventions aren't more widely used is because we need more trials, specifically more randomized control trials, since this has become the de facto standard for validating in new therapy. But the very reason we don't have more randomized control trials for them is because they are the wrong tool for the job.
We've created an impossible standard, the only way to advance game level interventions in modern medicine according to existing criteria. Is to conduct randomized controlled trials on them. Yet by design, randomized controlled trials can't advance our knowledge of game level interventions. So how do we learn to play the game, in this case the game of help? Game level knowledge in any complex adaptive system is acquired by trial and error by playing the game as it's designed. That means we make a move, assess the outcome of that move based on the feedback we receive, modify our approach, and make another move.
The truth is, there are many kinds of knowledge we can acquire that don't require randomized controlled trials. In fact, almost all of the knowledge that you currently possess, including things that you consider unassailable truths about the world, were acquired through this virtuous feedback cycle. For example, we all accept that walking off a Cliff is bad for our health, and yet we've never done a randomized trial to prove that this is true.
And if someone were to argue that, we couldn't make this claim without a randomized trial. Or that suggesting that walking off a Cliff was bad for your health wasn't based on nothing but flimsy anecdotal evidence. We wouldn't take them seriously. We know this should be true for other reasons, from our knowledge of basic principles like gravity and the forces that a human body can withstand, and our prior personal experience and so on.
The point being, there are many forms of knowledge that we can construct with confidence without the need for a randomized trial. Another important implication is that understanding the mechanisms of how an intervention works is not required to utilize that intervention. In fact, not only do you not need to know why a game level intervention works at a mechanistic level in order to use it effectively, but knowing how it works rarely improves gameplay. For example, a pitcher can throw a curveball with no explicit knowledge of the physics involved. And furthermore. Having explicit knowledge of the physics involved doesn't really help to throw a better curveball.
Last I checked, there were no physics professors in Major League Baseball or back to our parable. You needn't know anything about how the game works to win the Angry Birds Championship, as team source code learned, and yet our prevailing approach to finding health interventions over the past half century. Has been to start by identifying the mechanisms of disease based on the idea that this is how we will ultimately win the game. So we have different forms of knowledge, game level and source code, both of which are valuable, both which have their own particular domain of application of where they are most useful. .
But presently almost all of our research dollars and efforts are being spent towards acquiring the wrong kind of knowledge for how to treat chronic disease.
Game-Level vs. Source Code Interventions
Definitions and Distinctions
- Game-Level Interventions: Evolutionarily familiar actions; safe due to engagement with evolved regulatory mechanisms.
- Source Code Interventions: Evolutionarily novel; riskier due to bypassing evolved mechanisms.
Characteristics
- Safety and Power:
- Game-Level: Safer, more powerful due to upstream action affecting multiple pathways.
- Source Code: Riskier, weaker due to downstream action with narrower influence.
Suitability
- Complex Systems: Game-Level interventions ideal for complex systems like the human body.
- Single Factor Conditions: Source Code interventions suitable for acute, binary conditions (e.g., bacterial meningitis).
Research and Evaluation Challenges
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs)
- Source Code: RCTs suitable for evaluating static, single-variable interventions.
- Game-Level: Dynamic, multi-variable; RCTs not an appropriate evaluation tool.
Learning and Knowledge Acquisition
- Trial and Error: Essential for understanding complex systems and game-level interventions.
- Mechanistic Understanding: Not necessary for effective use of game-level interventions.
Implications for Therapeutic Advancement
Current Research Focus
- Predominantly on source code knowledge, despite its limited applicability to chronic diseases.
Need for Paradigm Shift
- Emphasis on game-level knowledge through experiential learning and trial and error, bypassing the limitations of RCTs for complex interventions.
Summary
- Game-Level interventions align with evolutionary biology, offering safer and broader impact due to their compatibility with human physiology.
- Source Code interventions, while crucial for specific acute conditions, pose higher risks and have limited scope due to their novel nature.
- The prevailing medical research model, focused on RCTs and mechanistic understanding, is misaligned with the nature of complex adaptive systems, necessitating a shift towards a more holistic, experiential approach to health and therapeutics.
- What distinguishes game-level interventions from source code interventions in the context of health therapeutics?
- Game-level interventions are based on modern technology, while source code interventions use traditional methods.
- Game-level interventions are evolutionarily familiar and safer, while source code interventions are novel and riskier.
- Source code interventions can be applied to any condition, while game-level interventions are only for physical fitness.
- Game-level interventions require extensive safety testing, whereas source code interventions do not.
- Why are randomized controlled trials (RCTs) not suitable for evaluating game-level interventions?
- Because RCTs are too expensive and time-consuming to carry out.
- Game-level interventions affect multiple variables simultaneously, making RCTs designed for single-variable interventions inappropriate.
- All game-level interventions have already been proven effective without needing RCTs.
- RCTs are only suitable for pharmaceutical interventions, not lifestyle or dietary changes.
- How can knowledge about effective game-level interventions be acquired according to the text?
- Exclusively through conducting large-scale epidemiological studies.
- By trial and error, assessing outcomes, and adjusting approaches based on feedback.
- Only through understanding the mechanistic details of how interventions work.
- Through anecdotal evidence and personal testimonials only.
- B
B
B
Lesson 04 of 05 - Quadrant Model
The lesson presents a four quadrant model to guide health intervention decisions. The model categories interventions based on their level (game or source code) and impact (supportive or disruptive). Game-level interventions align with evolutionary forces, while source code interventions interact with biochemical mechanisms. Supportive interventions assist the body's natural processes, while disruptive interventions override physiological norms. The text suggests prioritizing game-level, supportive interventions, moving to disruptive game-level, supportive source-code, and lastly, disruptive source-code interventions.
Earlier I said we would attempt to answer 2 questions. The first was why we failed so spectacularly in finding effective pharmacologic treatments to the health problems of our time, and thus far I've suggested that the answer to that lies in our myopic focus on source code interventions rather than in learning how to play the game. The second question was why we haven't changed our approach in spite of this massive failure. Why we've continued to double down on the Search for Source Code interventions in spite of their disappointing track record, rather than rethinking our underlying strategy. There are likely several reasons why, but one is just because, like the members of Team Source Code, we find reductionism inherently seductive.
Because it's a product of science and reason, and because it's a kind of knowledge that's initially hidden from us, it feels like we've peeled back the curtain to discover something deeper. Something more true and most importantly, more useful. Like Dorothy and her friends, it feels like we've found the man behind the curtain, as I've hopefully illustrated thus far, that couldn't be further from the truth. Yet it's hard to let go of this intuition. It feels like intervening at the source code should be better. Interventions that act this hidden or secret level seem like they should be inherently superior.
This appears to be our natural inclination. Stemming at least in part from a bias towards thinking that this hidden level is more powerful, but also by tapping into our desires to find silver bullets and smoking guns, it's much easier to market and sell silver bullet solutions because they feel easier. It is easier to wrap our minds around problems with a single cause rather than ones that have multiple moving parts that interact in unpredictable ways, but because of these natural biases. And because our incentives often push us further away from the therapeutic solutions we need, I think it's important to create safeguards to formalize the ancestral approach to maintaining health, preventing illness and treating disease.
To create a therapeutic framework that integrates an evolutionary perspective that allows us to be systematic about acquiring and sharing knowledge in this area, to have a common language and a compass for orienting our collective efforts to that end. As a means of formalizing this ancestral health paradigm, and as a means of safeguarding ourselves against the lure of reductionism, I'll now walk through a four quadrant model that categorizes the various kinds of health actions we can take according to our new schema. And that, as you will see, provides a clear guiding framework for prioritizing health decision making. So we can categorize any health action we might take into one of these 4 quadrants.
On the vertical is the level of the intervention, the biological level at which an intervention exerts its effect, the game or the source code. And while these are two ends of a spectrum, most interventions tend to fall primarily into either game or source code level. Remember, game level interventions operate at the level of the evolutionary forces that have shaped our biology. Source code interventions operate at the level of biochemical mechanisms interacting with proteins, receptors, neurotransmitters, and so on.
On the horizontal axis is the goal of the intervention or the health action that we've taken. First, we have actions that are supportive. Supportive interventions are those that activate or amplify the body's ability to achieve health, or in other words, that assist the body in something that it's already trying to do. Interventions of this nature are thus directed towards minimizing or mitigating mismatch by modifying our ordinary daily behaviors to increase the evolutionary concordance in our lives. To make the conditions of our present habitat closer to our natural one, as all of the physiological process which we'd like to optimize have been finally calibrated to that ancestral habitat.
So here we're really using environment to move the balance of normal Physiology in a favorable direction. Disruptive or exploitative interventions are those that are intended to disrupt or exploit the default Physiology in an effort to either enhance biological function or to correct defective functioning. In these cases, we're doing so because we believe that the effects of the disruption are preferred over the default Physiology. Exploitative interventions are similar in that we're taking our understanding of Physiology and exploiting those physiologic mechanisms either to enhance health or function or treat illness, again overriding the physiological status quo.
So in the upper left hand quadrant, which we'll refer to as quadrant one, are interventions or health actions that act at the game level. Or are evolutionarily familiar and that support or assist the body in what it is already trying to do. Examples here would be doing things like eating an ancestral diet that removes evolutionarily novel foods, getting adequate sleep quantity and quality, going outside in the morning or avoiding eating at night to maintain circadian alignment, filtering out blue spectrum light after sunset, and so forth.
These are all the things that we do to bring our present environment more in line with our ancestral 1. Or to reduce environmental mismatch. Our aim is to provide the body with the range of environmental inputs that all of our physiological processes are adapted to, as a means of both optimizing health and preventing the breakdown in Physiology that results from mismatch and is the root driver of chronic diseases. In the upper right quadrant are interventions or actions that are also at the game level, but whose impact is disruptive or exploitative. Here we're making a game level move to alter or manipulate a particular physiological process in order to improve health in some way.
Some examples of actions in this category would be nutritional therapies like the ketogenic diet where we're promoting a particular metabolic state to achieve a specific health outcome. Another might be heat therapy like sauna where we're using a game level exposure like ambient temperature. Not as a means of reducing mismatch, but in order to induce physiological responses that we think are beneficial. Another example here would be mindfulness meditation, to improve the health and function of the brain and body In our lower left quadrant, we have interventions or actions that act at the source code level but are supportive in their impact, An attempt to assist the body in something it's already trying to do.
Once again, these are interventions typically undertaken as a means of reducing mismatch. In this category, we'd have things like specific vitamins and minerals that we would have obtained in adequate amounts in our ancestral habitat, but that are commonly insufficient in our present one. For example, we tend to spend significantly less time outdoors in direct sunlight in our modern environment, which is why vitamin D deficiency is so widespread. One way to reduce that mismatch would be to take a vitamin D supplement, the dissociation of our daily rhythms from the rise and fall of the sun.
Can result in degradation of our sleep wake cycle, and one potential way to mitigate the impact of that mismatch would be to take supplemental melatonin. The typical Western diet is deficient in several essential vitamins and minerals, and taking those in purified form would be a means of reducing that particular mismatch. Again, these are examples of mismatches that result in the body not having sufficient amounts of the raw materials it needs to carry out normal physiological processes.
Our last quadrant in the lower right corner contains source code interventions that are disruptive, where again, we're attempting to override a physiological process to promote better health. That may seem like a bold and risky thing to do, so where might it make sense to do so? The primary scenario where we might want to do such a thing is when one of the body's regulatory systems has broken past the point of no return. Injecting insulin for diabetes would be one example. In this case, the system for regulating blood glucose is broken, as the body has lost its primary means of doing so because of disease.
Now the physiological status quo can result in dangerously high blood glucose levels, so it can make sense to alter that with a source code intervention. Another example would be hyper supplementation, meaning taking a particular supplement like a vitamin past the point that's needed to support baseline physiological functions. In order to achieve some kind of medicinal effect, a large dose of magnesium, for example, to relieve Constipation, or large quantities of vitamin C to shorten the duration of an upper respiratory infection.
In these instances, we're using our understanding of biology at the source code level to manipulate a certain part of it to either enhance function health or to treat illness, and so the prioritization schema according to the argument I've just outlined. Would be that interventions in quadrant one would be favored over those in quadrant 2, which are favored over those in quadrant 3, which are favored over those in quadrant 4. Our primary interventions we utilize to promote health and treat illness should be game level and supportive, and our last resorts should be those that are source code level and disruptive.
The only instance where we would deviate from this rule. Would be if we had clear head to head evidence indicating that an intervention in a higher quadrant was superior than an intervention in a lower quadrant.
Failure in Pharmacologic Treatments
- Two Key Questions:
- Why lack of effective treatments?
- Why no change in approach despite failures?
- Source Code Focus: Myopic focus on source code interventions cited as primary reason for failure.
- Attraction to Reductionism: Seductive nature of uncovering hidden knowledge.
Ancestral Health Approach
- Creation of Safeguards: Formalizing ancestral health to prevent illness and promote health.
- Integrating Evolutionary Perspective: Systematic knowledge sharing and common language for health actions.
Four Quadrant Model
- Framework: Categorizes health actions into four quadrants based on intervention level and goal.
- Vertical Axis: Game level (evolutionary forces) vs. Source code level (biochemical mechanisms).
- Horizontal Axis: Supportive (activating body’s health mechanisms) vs. Disruptive/Exploitative (altering default physiology).
Quadrant Descriptions
- Upper Left (Quadrant 1): Game level and supportive.
- Examples: Ancestral diet, adequate sleep, circadian alignment, reducing environmental mismatch.
- Upper Right (Quadrant 2): Game level, disruptive/exploitative.
- Examples: Ketogenic diet, heat therapy, mindfulness meditation.
- Lower Left (Quadrant 3): Source code level, supportive.
- Examples: Vitamin D supplementation, melatonin for sleep, nutrient supplementation.
- Lower Right (Quadrant 4): Source code level, disruptive.
- Examples: Insulin for diabetes, high-dose vitamin C for infections.
Prioritization Schema
- Preference Order: Quadrant 1 > Quadrant 2 > Quadrant 3 > Quadrant 4.
- Primary Interventions: Focus on game level and supportive actions.
- Exception: Clear evidence favoring higher quadrant intervention over lower.
- What is the primary reason for the continued focus on source code interventions despite their limited success in addressing health problems?
- Lack of understanding about game-level interventions.
- Reductionism is inherently seductive and feels like it reveals deeper, more useful truths.
- Source code interventions are cheaper and easier to implement.
- There is a legal requirement to prioritize source code interventions.
- According to the four-quadrant model, what characterizes interventions in the upper left quadrant (Quadrant 1)?
- They are source code level and disruptive.
- They act at the game level and are supportive, assisting the body in what it's already trying to do.
- They are source code level and supportive.
- They are game level but intended to disrupt or exploit default physiology.
- B
- Why are interventions that are source code level and disruptive considered as the last resort in the prioritization schema?
- A. Because they are the most expensive and difficult to administer.
- B. They are favored only if clear evidence shows superiority over lower quadrant interventions.
- They are less effective than game-level interventions in all cases.
- There is no scientific basis for their effectiveness.
- B
B
Lesson 05 of 05 - The Next Frontier
Dr. Turknett argues for game level interventions in healthcare, which include aspects like diet and sleep. They assert that these interventions, supported by emerging technologies, can lead to significant health improvements. The process involves making a change, gathering feedback, and refining the approach, forming a virtuous cycle of improvement. Examples given include the ketogenic diet and sleep enhancement strategies. Dr. Turknett highlights the need for a research ecosystem to study these interventions, which may resolve health contradictions and drive a revolution in human health and therapeutics.
Another reason I think we've continued to repeat the same mistakes is because source code solutions scale well. And if you want to build a big profitable business as well as solve big public health problems, you need solutions that scale. And drugs and supplements scale very well. Furthermore, our system is currently designed in a way that allows you to create a billion dollar blockbuster drug that isn't superior to ones that already exist.
And that's much easier to do than to create a truly superior drug, as history shows. As a result, this has lessened the incentives for finding superior solutions. In order to progress in medical therapeutics, we need a new model for developing, evaluating and refining game level interventions that leverage the tools of science and that can scale. A model that provides new incredible ways of advancing therapeutic knowledge beyond the randomized control trial and models for how those things can scale.
So that we can create interventions that are profitable and impactful. And I think this is entirely possible that you can take team game levels approach to winning the game, apply the tools of science to get better at every step in the process in ways that can scale. Let's again take the strategy for getting better at any game or acquiring game level knowledge. That process is play or make a move in the game, assess or acquire feedback, modify your approach based on the feedback and make another move.
This creates a virtuous cycle of improvement, one that can be amplified by applying the tools of science at each step, coupled with our own intuitions and experiences at the playstep. Again, we're talking about game level actions of some kind. In many cases, this will be the adoption and maintenance of new behaviors to which we can apply the science of behavioral change, as well as all of the emerging technologies that support it.
In recent years, we've also seen significant growth in the number of technologies that are being developed to assist us in playing the game better, from smart lighting to cooling blankets to sounds for prolonging deep sleep. In the assessment step for any game level intervention, we have various ways of collecting feedback including our own subjective experience along with a host of advanced technologies like lab testing, biometric devices, imaging and digital phenotyping. As mentioned, providing feedback about the effects of game level interventions is where our source code knowledge is best applied. In the modify phase, we then use the feedback we've collected to decide whether and how to amend our game level actions.
Here we can increasingly augment our own analytical skills using the powerful and ever expanding tools of data science and machine learning. Let's take an example. As mentioned, one promising area of game level interventions are nutritional therapies like the ketogenic diet. In this case the primary intervention is the diet itself, which for most people implementing it will mean a significant lifestyle adjustment and so the success of that implementation will depend heavily on the facilitation of behavior change. Various types of feedback can then be obtained, including processed based metrics to monitor adherence to the diet, primary means of effectiveness for the condition of concern. Which in this case would be the effects on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1C and then a host of potential secondary metrics that may be impacted as well, like blood pressure, body fat, lipid profile and so on.
Based on that feedback, modifications of various kinds can be made from changes in the composition of the diet to changes in the nature and frequency of support to improve adherence and so on. Another example of how this works would be with interventions for enhancing sleep, for example. We know that, as is typical of game level interventions, deep sleep has unique, powerful and wide reaching health benefits, and so just getting a little bit more every night could have an outsized impact on current and future health. It's also likely that there are a great many variables that influence the time we spend in deep sleep, some of which are known, some of which are yet to be discovered.
And then there are promising emerging technologies that interface at the game level that can influence time and deep sleep. So once again, at each step in our virtuous cycle, we have opportunities to enhance our results through the application of technology. Each of these factors of influence can be manipulated, assessed and refined with the potential payoff that's enormous, again far exceeding in scope and impact anything that intervenes at the source code level. And on top of all that, we can then use the tools of systems analysis to look at how all of these different domains interact. To uncover previously unknown interrelationships and contextual dependencies. For example, we know that alcohol reduces deep sleep, and yet we also know that drinking two alcoholic beverages a day is associated with longevity, a relationship that at our present level of knowledge strikes us as paradoxical.
It's hard for us to reconcile that paradox right now because we don't have a research ecosystem for examining contextual dependencies, as we all know. Right now, the world of health contains many contradictions which are a source of great confusion. Yet most of these apparent contradictions would likely evaporate if we were better able to assess the role of context. So to summarize, the myopic focus on evolutionarily novel source code interventions explains our inability to translate advances in knowledge and technology into better treatments. Or it explains our therapeutic winter. The ancestral health paradigm for chronic disease prioritizes evolutionarily familiar game level interventions. Advancing knowledge about game level interventions requires different research tools and methods than source code interventions.
Creating a research ecosystem for developing and scaling game level interventions will bring about a revolution in human health and therapeutics.
Scalability and Profitability in Medical Therapeutics
- Source Code Solution Appeal: Scales well, fits big business and public health solution models.
- Profitability Over Superiority: System allows for profitable, non-superior drugs over groundbreaking solutions.
- Need for New Model: For developing, evaluating, and refining scalable game level interventions.
Leveraging Science for Game Level Interventions
- Cycle of Improvement: Play, assess, modify approach based on feedback.
- Applying Science Tools: Enhances each step of the improvement cycle.
- Behavioral Change and Technology: Key in adoption and maintenance of new behaviors.
- Feedback Collection: Utilizes both subjective experiences and advanced technologies.
Examples and Application
- Nutritional Therapies: E.g., ketogenic diet requires behavioral change, monitored by various feedback mechanisms.
- Sleep Enhancement: E.g., technologies that influence deep sleep, with wide-reaching health benefits.
Advancing Game Level Interventions
- Technology and Data Science: Augment analytical skills, enhance intervention strategies.
- Systems Analysis: Uncover interrelationships and contextual dependencies.
- Contradictions in Health: Highlight the need for a research ecosystem focused on context.
Summary
- Focus on Source Code Interventions: Explains the failure to translate knowledge into effective treatments.
- Ancestral Health Paradigm: Prioritizes game level interventions, aligning with evolutionary familiarity.
- Research Ecosystem Need: For game level interventions, promising a revolution in health and therapeutics.
- Why are source code solutions appealing for solving public health problems and building profitable businesses?
- They are inherently more effective than game level interventions.
- They scale well and can lead to the creation of billion-dollar drugs.
- They are easier to implement on a global scale.
- They require less initial investment to develop.
- What is described as a virtuous cycle of improvement in the context of game level interventions?
- A process involving play, assess, modify based on feedback, and repeat.
- A cycle of pharmaceutical development, clinical trials, and marketing.
- A feedback loop consisting solely of lab testing and digital phenotyping.
- A pattern of behavior change based on the use of advanced technology alone.
- A
- How can the contradiction between the known negative effects of alcohol on deep sleep and its association with longevity be resolved?
- By ignoring the negative effects of alcohol altogether.
- Through further development of source code level interventions.
- By establishing a research ecosystem that examines contextual dependencies.
- By prioritizing pharmaceutical interventions over lifestyle changes.
- C
B